I recently wrote a news story for insurancenetworking.com that struck a chord with more people in the industry than I expected, becoming the most-shared news story from our site in June. While I take great pride in our work here, the popularity of this specific story produced a flurry of theories.
The lead behind the story "Predictive Modeling: Where We've Been and Where We're Going," came from the Casualty Actuarial Society's (CAS) Spring Meeting. At the meeting's session "The Revolution and Evolution of Predictive Modeling," Claudine Modlin, a senior consultant at Towers Watson, laid out how far predictive analytics has advanced insurance pricing in the past decade. At the end of the 20th century, insurers were still bound to mainframe computers and highly aggregated data sets, she said. Rating plans were finalized based on the collective judgment of underwriters and actuaries, with little data-driven guidance in how and where to deviate from the expected costs.
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