Tropical Storm Karen is approaching the U.S. coastline in the Gulf and is expected to make landfall Saturday night or Sunday morning; Willis Re reports that there is a 26 percent chance it will be a hurricane by that time.

“Tropical Storm Karen is expected to slightly strengthen over the next 24 hours under moderate shear, and could reach hurricane status by Friday,” said Tim Doggett, senior principal scientist, AIR Worldwide. “However, the shear over the Gulf of Mexico is forecast to become more severe in the next 48 hours due to a jet stream disturbance moving in from the U.S. Central Plain. The more hostile environment will prevent further intensification, and weakening is expected before landfall on the U.S. Gulf Coast.”

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