Forrester's Global Tech Market Outlook for 2012 and 2013 finds the next 24 months marked by a pair of transitions: a temporary spending slowdown following a post-recession bounce; and an accelerating shift of spending from old to newer technologies.

Lead analyst Andrew Bartels says IT spending experienced a good run with near 10 percent growth in 2011; that will slow to about 5 percent this year (U.S. and globally) and rebound to 8 percent in 2013. Debt burdens have hurt Europe and rippled east and south into Africa. Asia and Americas spending will offset those declines overall. One new effect, Bartels says, is that exchange rates will become a bigger factor in technology vendor plans.

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