A bomb exploded in Moscow’s largest airport, Domodedovo, this morning, reportedly killing 35 people and injuring more than 180. The blast is believed to be the work of a lone suicide bomber terrorist, who detonated 15lbs of explosives inside the arrivals hall, an unsecured area that allows people to enter freely to meet passengers.
“Early intelligence reports suggest the bomber might have had several accomplices,” said Dr. Gordon Woo, lead catastrophist at RMS, a provider of products, services, and expertise for the quantification and management of catastrophe risk. “It appears that Russian Intelligence might have had some prior notice of an impending attack, but the small size of this conspiracy would have made it hard to interdict. The chance of stopping a plot like this is only about 60%."
This is the type of aviation transportation attack that could occur at any major airport in North America or Europe, notes RMS, and as a result, a heightened alert at Heathrow was recently announced. From an insurance perspective, intelligence constraints on the number of operatives are limiting the scale of the terrorism losses inflicted, which are much lower than for a large vehicle bomb, or an aircraft impact into a high-rise building.
Domodedovo, Russia’s primary airport, is located approximately 14 miles from Moscow, and processes more than 20 million passengers a year through its terminals.United Airlines operates daily service between Washington, D.C. – Moscow (Domodedovo), and Delta and uses Sheremetyevo International Airport (SVO), one of three Moscow airports for international flights. Since the bombing, international flights have been diverted or delayed at Domodedovo, according to reports. Security has been tightened at other airports in Moscow as well as at the city's transit system, the target of terrorist attacks in March 2010 in which 40 people died.Of late, fears of a new wave of terrorism within Russia have been rising. The country has been downgraded by some analyst firms, which report that it shares high-risk issues in common with countries such as post-war Iraq, an unstable North Korea, and crisis-ridden Pakistan.Bloomberg reports that Russia is “one of the world’s riskiest locations for business to invest in,” according to a survey of 196 nations by U.K. risk-assessment company Maplecroft, which assesses factors including conflict, terrorism, the rule of law and the regulatory and business environment.
Russia is the 10th-riskiest country for investors, sliding from 15th last year to place between Pakistan and the Central African Republic, Maplecroft’s annual Political Risk Atlas. Brazil, India and China, which along with Russia make up the so-called BRIC group of leading emerging-market economies, are ranked 94th, 26th and 62nd, respectively.
Yet Fitch Ratings will probably upgrade Russia’s credit score this year if the economy continues to expand and the budget deficit and inflation remain in check, Bloomberg reports.
Globally, the level of political risk is rising in more countries than it is declining, according to Aon Risk Solutions. Its “2011 Political Risk Map,” released last week, measures political risks of 211 countries and territories based on the several different exposures, such as currency inconvertibility and transfer; strikes, riots and civil commotion; war; sovereign nonpayment; political interference; supply chain interruption; and legal and regulatory risk.
