Rating Agencies: Hurricane Irene Losses Manageable

Time will still tell when it comes to insured losses from Hurricane Irene. AIR Worldwide estimates insured losses between $3 billion and $6 billion from Irene, which Fitch Ratings says is manageable for U.S. property/casualty insurers and reinsurers.

A.M. Best Co. also expects the overall financial impact of Hurricane Irene to the U.S. property/casualty industry to be generally manageable given the current overall strength of the industry. However, estimates of first-half 2011 catastrophe-related losses are already higher than 2010’s year-end total, and the potential for continued hurricane-related activity exists as the industry moves into what is considered to be the peak of the hurricane season. As a result, A.M. Best believes some companies may face capital, and ultimately, rating pressures. A.M. Best does not anticipate a significant number of ratings actions to be associated with Hurricane Irene. However, companies with significant market share in the impacted states will be evaluated relative to A.M. Best’s previous loss expectations.

Fitch also does not anticipate material rating changes for any insurers tied solely to losses from Hurricane Irene. “Insurers most likely to be affected by the storm include those companies who emphasize homeowners and commercial multiperil property insurance,” said Brian Schneider, senior director at Fitch. “Market share in these lines is concentrated in organizations that tend to have larger capital bases and adequate liquidity.”

Reinsurers, Fitch says, remain vulnerable to further catastrophe losses in the remaining three months of the Atlantic hurricane season. Fitch projects 2011 to be the highest catastrophe loss year since 2008 (the year of Hurricanes Ike and Gustav) for reinsurers. This is primarily due to inordinate losses as a result of thunderstorms and tornadoes in the first half of the year. Despite the forecast, Hurricane Irene is not likely to be a game-changer for the sector.