Newark, Calif. -- Risk Management Solutions (RMS) recently performed a number of analyses for the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) to assess the absolute risk of terrorism and quantify how the terms of the December 2005 renewal of the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act (TRIA) would shift the relative share of the risk from the government to the insurance industry.RMS analysis shows that while TRIA provides solvency protection in extreme events, it is not an insurance industry subsidy. Based on the new TRIA terms, over 90% of the RMS modeled average annual loss would be retained by the industry. If an attack occurred, there is also less than a 10% chance that it would cause the industry deductible to be reached, since only the most extreme, low-probability attacks will cause losses in excess of $30 billion. For example, the 2001 World Trade Center attacks resulted in approximately $32.5 billion of insured losses. Were an event of this magnitude to occur today, it would thus produce only a minimal TRIA recovery for the insurance industry.
While the act was extended for two years, in 2007 insurers' deductibles will increase from 17.5% of direct earned premium (DEP) to 20% of DEP, and the government quota share on losses above the retention shrinks from 90% to 85%. This will lead to another significant increase in the amount of terrorism risk held by the industry, highlighting the need for insurers to focus on terrorism risk management.
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