NOAA's National Weather Service predicts a
The agency also forecasts a 35% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance of above-normal activity.
Monica Ningen, CEO of U.S. property and casualty reinsurance at Swiss Re, cautions that while seasonal forecasts can provide useful context, the insurance industry should avoid placing too much emphasis on headline averages.
"We've been in this position before, where a 'below-average' forecast creates a sense of relief. But from a risk standpoint, that's not how this works. It only takes one storm making landfall in a densely populated area to turn a quiet season into a costly one. The underlying exposure continues to grow, and that's what ultimately drives losses," shared Ningen. "Forecasts are a useful input, but they don't change the fundamentals of the risk landscape. We're seeing higher insured values, more concentration in coastal areas and more complex supply chains. That means the severity of a single event today can be materially higher than what we saw even a decade ago."
According to the NOAA, an average hurricane season produces 14 named storms with seven hurricanes, including three major hurricanes. For 2026, forecasters predict between eight and 14 named storms, including three to six hurricanes and one to three major hurricanes.
Although no hurricanes made U.S. landfall in 2025, Hurricane Melissa struck the Caribbean in October and
"Another point we consistently emphasize is timing. Some of the most impactful storms we've experienced formed later in the season. So, while a forecast may shape early expectations, it shouldn't change how clients think about preparedness in September, October and beyond," said Ningen. "From an industry perspective, this isn't a moment to relax. The market is in a stronger position today, but that strength comes from doing the basics well — underwriting carefully and managing risk — so we can pay claims, support our clients and help communities get back on their feet when events happen."
