Boston-based catastrophe risk modeling firm AIR Worldwide (AIR) estimates that insurable losses (losses from properties that are eligible for insurance, whether or not they are actually insured) from Hurricane Alex are not expected to exceed $200 million USD. Since insurance penetration in Mexico is relatively low, insured losses are not expected to be significant. AIR’s loss estimate covers possible wind and flood damage to onshore properties in Mexico and is based on the available meteorological parameters and the forecast track for Hurricane Alex since it made landfall in northeast Mexico Wednesday night.

“Hurricane Dolly in 2008, which also reached Category 2 intensity, was the most recent hurricane to make landfall close to Hurricane Alex’s path,” said Dr. Tim Doggett, principal scientist at AIR Worldwide. “The last hurricane to form in the Atlantic basin in the month of June was Hurricane Allison, 15 years ago, in 1995. That year saw 19 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and five major hurricanes—a season very similar to that predicted for 2010. Alex also has been the strongest hurricane to form in the Atlantic basin in June since 1966.”

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