This time of year, much of the talk of estimates has to do with football teams underestimating their opponents. However, when it comes to the insurance industry, the opposite seems to be in effect. A report issued today by Karen Clark & Co. an independent firm specializing in catastrophe risk, models and management, released its third annual assessment of the performance of near-term hurricane models.

The report finds that the models, designed to project insured losses in the United States from Atlantic hurricanes for the 2006 through 2010 seasons, have significantly overestimated losses for this cumulative five-year period. The company’s previous reports came to the same conclusion for the 2006 through 2008, and 2006 through 2009 seasons.

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