Insured Losses From Irene Pegged at $2.82B

Catastrophe modeling firm Risk Management Solutions (RMS) has issued a final Paradex index value of $2.82 billion in insured losses attributable to Hurricane Irene.

Used to price catastrophe risk in the insurance linked securities market, the Paradex procedure is designed to calculate a single objective ‘loss’ figure and includes losses from the automobile-, commercial- and residential-modeled lines of business.

For Irene, RMS says 85 percent of the $2.82 billion is attributed to residential losses.

Last week, RMS released a U.S.-insured industry loss estimate of between $2 and 4.5 billion for Hurricane Irene, excluding inland flood losses from heavy rainfall and all National Flood Insurance Program losses from surge and rain (with a further $0.5 to $1 billion for the Caribbean). RMS’ industry loss estimate takes into account additional drivers of loss not captured by the Paradex index, such as power outages and tree-fall damage, as well as an evaluation of observed damage from the event.

Elsewhere, catastrophe modeling firm AIR Worldwide reiterated that its estimate of insured losses in the United States from Irene remains unchanged at between $3 billion and $6 billion. Nonetheless, the company revised its industry-insured loss estimates for Hurricane Irene’s impact in the Bahamas downward to between $200 million and $400 million.

On Aug. 26, 2011, AIR estimated that industry-insured losses were between $300 million and $700 million. “Since that initial posting, AIR conducted a damage survey in the Bahamian islands of New Providence, Eleuthera, Abaco and Green Turtle Cay,” said Scott Stransky, scientist at AIR Worldwide. “The levels of observed damage from both wind and flood were consistent with expectations and with AIR model results. Wind damage to well-built concrete structures was limited to the roof, as the model indicates, while the less prevalent wooden structures suffered more substantial damage. Well-engineered commercial properties typically suffered significant damage to signage.”

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