Catastrophe modeling firms are working to survey the damage wrought by a strong earthquake that struck the eastern Turkey city of Van.
The United States Geological Survey has issued a preliminary moment magnitude estimate of 7.2 and a focal depth of 12.4 miles, while placing the epicenter approximately 9 miles north-northeast of Van.
“The earthquake caused significant damage in the epicentral region, collapsing buildings and causing scores of fatalities, according to preliminary reports,” modeling firm RMS notes in a release. “Officials estimate the number of fatalities could be as high as 1,000. Rescue efforts are continuing and damage reports are still emerging from the affected areas, though aftershocks are hampering efforts.”
The varying construction standards in the area may complicate damage assessments. According to modeling firm AIR Worldwide, in Turkey, the majority of residential and commercial buildings located in urban areas are reinforced concrete (RC) with masonry infill. “Most of these buildings, which are three to seven stories high, have cast-in-place RC frames with hollow brick infill panels and partition walls that are not connected to the frame,” AIR notes. “Research regarding the poor seismic performance of RC buildings during historical earthquakes in Turkey reveals design and construction deficiencies, including a lack of lateral resistance in the framing systems, irregularities in strength, poor quality construction materials, and inadequate reinforcement detailing and confinement in beam-column joints.”
