The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) still is predicting that this hurricane season will be another above-normal or possibly very active one, despite having reduced hurricane season estimates after a relatively calm July.
“Our confidence for an above-normal season is still high because the predicted atmospheric and oceanic conditions that are favorable for storm development have materialized,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service. “Also, two of the four named storms to-date formed in the deep tropical Atlantic, which historically is an indicator of an active season.”
With Atlantic hurricane season about to peak, the updated outlook from the NOAA says there is a 70-percent chance for an above-normal hurricane season yet, which would include 13 to 19 named storms, six to nine hurricanes and potentially three to five major hurricanes.
While this is similar to the outlook issued before hurricane season began, (http://www.insurancenetworking.com/news/noaa-forecasts-active-hurricane-season-32358-1.html), NOAA has reduced slightly its expectation of extreme activity. This is because of the decreased likelihood of La Niña developing and strengthening the season.
The 30-year averages for hurricane season, according to the NOAA, are 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
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