Financial volatility is top concern for U.S. risk managers, according to the
The online survey asks risk managers to rank current and emerging risks. The results from May 2025 were compared to those found in November 2024.
Globalization shift was chosen 7.4% more often and ranked second. Failed and failing states,
David Schraub, senior practice research actuary at SOA, shared responses with Digital Insurance about the survey and emerging risks.
Responses have been lightly edited for clarity.
What was surprising about the results from the survey?
In May's Mid-Year Flash Survey, risk managers identified financial volatility as a current risk 24% more frequently than the previous survey in November, propelling it to the top position. Additionally, the concern over wars (including civil wars) decreased by 11%, causing it to fall out of the top five risks after spiking as a current risk in 2023. Technology risks also saw a significant decline.
Respondents' views of emerging risks remained relatively stable between the November 2024 and May 2025 surveys. However, the mid-year survey did uncover changes in the perceptions of some emerging risks. Financial volatility, for example, rose by 4%, moving from the sixth to second most frequently cited top emerging risk.
While this marks the 18th cycle of our annual November survey it is only the third time we have completed a flash survey in May. The seasonality between fall and spring continues to stand out. In the fall, climate change (10% in spring 2025) and wars (6%) typically dominate responses for the top emerging risk question. However, in the spring, disruptive technology (11%, ranked first) tends to spike. The survey considers relative results and adds up to 100% for each question, so a higher response for one risk means a lower response for another risk.
Can you share more about the AI risks related to cybersecurity?
One way we analyze survey responses is by grouping risks into broad categories—economic, environmental, geopolitical, societal and technological—and tracking how each evolves over time. Within the technological category, the topic du jour is artificial intelligence (AI). Unlike many risks that tend to affect just one or two departments, AI risks often impact many across an organization. We asked respondents to rank sub-risks within the broader AI risk category. Cybersecurity emerged as the top AI sub-risk, and manipulation, such as deepfakes, ranked second.
As AI continues to evolve and mature, earlier issues around copyright and hallucination are beginning to fade away, while newer aspects are gaining attention. AI is increasingly blurring the lines between 'true' and 'fake.'
Can you speak more about the technological risks trending up?
Respondents chose cyber risk in the Mid-Year Flash report as a current risk 7% less often than in the November 2024 survey, but it is still in the top 5 among current risks. Cyber risks ranked slightly higher in the emerging risk list, in the fourth position, which was the same spot it held in the November 2024 survey.
The AI revolution is foundational. Some compare the incorporation of AI into work processes as the invention of electricity or other profound shifts. And this brings risks.
Anything else you would like to share?
Scenario concerns spiked for economic slowdown/depression (59%) and a new option, U.S. policies since 2025 (39%). This reflects risk managers' concerns with recent economic policies and the importance of stress testing to determine levels of resilience or fragility. The respondent was not limited in their number of responses for this question.
My personal sense is the general level of risks is rising – across the board. The case is easy to make that economic risks, geopolitical risks, technological risks, environmental risks and even societal risks are all rising.
