BOSTON--According to an analysis conducted by AIR Worldwide (AIR), a leading risk modeling company, the 2004 hurricane season should not be considered rare. The analysis, based on the AIR hurricane model, revealed that insurers should expect to see four hurricanes make landfall in the U.S. approximately once every 12 years. The expected frequency of four loss producing hurricanes in Florida is about once every 150 years--still within the range to which most insurance companies manage their catastrophe risk.
AIR also analyzed the financial impact of the season, which according to preliminary loss estimates from ISO's Property Claim Services (PCS), will likely exceed $20 billion. The analysis indicates that insurers should expect to see similar aggregate losses in a single season about once every 13 years for the U.S. and about once every 24 years for Florida.
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