Damage Estimates Emerge for Turkish Quake

As dramatic rescue efforts across eastern Turkey continue 3 days after Sunday's 7.2 magnitude earthquake, the insurance industry is engaged in the more quotidian task of tallying its losses.

Catastrophe modeling firms AIR Worldwide and EQECAT have each released primarily loss estimates for the quake. Citing the uncertainties that exist in estimating earthquake source parameters, AIR Worldwide put insured losses between $55 million and $170 million. Noting that several strong aftershocks that may have exacerbated damage caused by the main shock, EQECAT predicts a range of $100 to $200 million.

Given its position atop one of the longest strike-slip faults in the world, Turkey is no stranger to earthquakes. Following the catastrophic Izmit earthquake that killed nearly 20,000 people in 1999, the Turkish government introduced new construction codes aimed at increasing the structural integrity of buildings. However, many of the building in the cities closest to the epicenter, Van and Ercis, likely predate the stricter codes, notes Dr. Mehrdad Mahdyiar, director, earthquake hazard at AIR Worldwide.

“Moreover, code enforcement has long been an issue in Turkey; it was observed after the 1999 Izmit and Düzce earthquakes, for example, that many structures built in 1999 did not follow the 1998 regulations," Mahdyiar said in a statement. "Experts believe, however, that codes have been more seriously enforced after 2000. In 2006, the Turkish Earthquake Code was updated again, but its seismic provisions are similar to the existing 1998 code. Undoubtedly, many questions will be raised regarding code enforcement in the weeks ahead.”