New York — A report from Advisen Ltd., a provider of information, analytics and technology to the commercial insurance industry, predicts that the commercial insurance premium market cycle is close to its bottom, and that general commercial insurance prices will begin increasing by the fourth quarter of 2009 or the first quarter of 2010. Advisen research is based on its own database of premium history and its database of the financial performance of 13 million companies.

“In years past, insurance companies recouped underwriting losses with investment income, but in 2008 the combination underwriting losses and material investment losses means a five-year soft market is coming to an end,” says David Bradford, Advisen EVP and chief knowledge officer. “The global recession may delay the return of hard market conditions by keeping demand for insurance down, but once the hard market sets in, it is likely to last longer than was the case in recent cycles.

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