Reports on recent catastrophe losses continue to be updated. This week, catastrophe modeling firm
AIR’s insured loss estimates for the southeastern U.S. storms reflect insured physical damage to property (residential, commercial, industrial, auto), both structures and their contents; additional living expenses (ALE) for residential claims and business interruption losses. The death toll from the events is currently estimated at 354 across seven states, making it the second-deadliest severe thunderstorm outbreak in U.S. history, after the Tri-State tornado outbreak of 1925.
The Mississippi Emergency Management Agency reported 2,527 homes damaged and 104 damaged businesses, while the Virginia Department of Emergency Management reported initial estimates of 443 damaged structures. In Georgia, an EF-4 tornado touched down in Cartoosa County with winds of 175 mph, damaging or destroying 75 to 100 homes.
AIR reports that 38 of 67 Alabama counties have been declared as disaster areas, and the insurance commissioner has indicated that losses could reach those from Hurricane Ivan (2004) in his state. Information compiled by the American Red Cross points to as many as 5,000 properties destroyed in Tuscaloosa alone.
Commercial structures located on a tornado’s periphery can be severely damaged as a result missile impacts (i.e., airborne debris) and strong inflow winds, with the result that the overall damage footprint is effectively widened.
“In areas of Tuscaloosa affected by the EF-4 tornado, large commercial structures were reduced to rubble,” says Dr. Tim Doggett, principal scientist at AIR Worldwide. “Many properties closer to the periphery of the tornado sustained significant damage to their roofs and openings (large plate glass windows and doors). With the building envelope breached, many sustained subsequent structural damage.”
Japan Earthquake
Reports from the March 11 earthquake in Japan continue roll in—28,000 fatalities and 50,000 structures totally or severely damaged. EQECAT estimates the total insured loss from this event to be $22 to $39 billion.
The primary driver of this loss will be losses to property insurers (Japanese and international companies) with an estimated range of $15 billion to $25 billion. Other components included in EQECAT’s estimate include losses to marine, auto, life, and personal accident insurers. EQECAT's estimate also includes allowances for "Demand Surge"—post-catastrophe inflation of damage often seen in large catastrophes—and does not include potential losses from Contingent Business Interruption.
