Economic and geopolitical risks are the most impactful in the near-term,according to the Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS) and the Society of Actuaries' (SOA) Emerging Risks Survey.
Over 100 respondents were chief risk officers, chief actuaries, lead partners and senior thought leaders. Sixty percent of this group suggested economic and geopolitical risks would have the greatest impact on their organization in 2026. Sixty percent also believe technological, cyber events and artificial intelligence, and economic risks would have the greatest impact in three or more years. The most impactful risks were artificial intelligence adverse outcomes and greater-than-normal financial volatility, according to the report.
Respondents who were employed by a property and casualty insurance company selected environmental risks, discrete extreme weather events, as the most impactful this year and in three or more years, according to the survey.
Adverse outcomes related to AI were the most impactful for people employed by a consulting firm, according to the results.
R. Dale Hall, managing director of research, SOA, said in a statement: "The survey shows a shift from geopolitical and economic concerns in 2026 toward technology-driven risks three or more years out. The report also explores the interconnectedness of risks, and the possibility of risks migrating to other areas."
The survey was fielded online during October to December, 2025 among 100 insurance industry professionals. Respondents represent a range of organization types, with the largest shares from agencies/brokerages (33%), P&C carriers (18%), multi-line carriers (15%), health insurance carriers (12%), and life insurance carriers (7%).
