Based on early calculations and modeling conducted by AIR Worldwide, insured property losses from the Mw9.1 earthquake that struck Japan on Friday will range between 1.2 trillion JPY to 2.8 trillion JPY. Using today’s exchange rate of 81.85 JPY to the dollar, this translates to a range of between 15 billion USD and 35 billion USD.

In its calculations, AIR simulated dozens of scenarios with varying magnitude (8.9 to 9.1), focal depth (9 miles to 18 miles) and rupture width (62 miles to 93 miles). The losses are most sensitive to rupture dimensions, and become extremely large if the modeled rupture is extended southward toward the Tokyo and Chiba prefectures, which contain a higher concentration of insured properties.

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