Texas floods property impact analysis, Cotality

The heavy thunderstorms and subsequent floods that started on July 4, 2025 in Texas Hill Country devastated its communities, taking more than 130 lives with some still missing as of July 21, and is now the deadliest flash flood event in United States history since the 1970s. 

Cotality shared property impact estimates by recreating the flood footprint with precipitation and stream-gauge data, though it is noted that there is some uncertainty around information on flood depth and on affected properties with insurance deductibles and limits.

Financial loss estimates

According to Cotality estimates as of July 21, the disaster caused $1.1 billion in damage to residential buildings, though this will have a limited impact on primary insurers and reinsurers as the majority of the loss costs will fall on homeowners and business owners. The National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) can provide homeowners and businesses with up to $135 million in insurance recoveries, which includes buildings, contents and additional living expenses. 

Properties and areas impacted

Estimates show that over 38,600 residential structures within the flood footprint of counties may have been affected by the floods and deemed eligible for FEMA assistance. This includes Tom Green, Travis, Kerr, Williamson and Burnet counties, which experienced the greatest number of residential properties affected by the floods. Cotality shares that not all properties within the flood footprint were damaged.

Cotality's initial analysis of the counties eligible for Federal Individual of Public Assistance, disaster relief provided by Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) through NFIP policies shows that there are only 14,000 policies in force in areas most impacted.

Stream gauge data

Flash flooding is common in the Hill Country of Central Texas, Cotality explains, and historic record levels were measured at stream gauges across the region. Cotality traced the rainfall event that caused the destruction of the July 4 flash floods to a convective vortex that formed after topical storm Barry. This produced rainfall rates that reached 3 inches per hour and created an "explosive rise" in the Guadalupe River. The river rose more than 30 feet in 95 minutes, according to stream gauge data from Hunt, Texas, with one sensor failing after reaching a record high of 37 feet for that area.