In the second quarter, private mortgage insurers wrote 21% more new business versus the first quarter and 17% more than one year prior, data aggregated by Keefe, Bruyette & Woods found.
After the reporting season ended, Bose George raised the earnings targets on four of the five companies he followed, Radian being the exception.
On July 29, both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac announced changes to the Private Mortgage Insurer Eligibility Requirements, a capital test the underwriters must meet to sell to the government-sponsored enterprises, regarding
Under the new rule, which goes into effect on Sept. 30, if the insurer receives both VantageScore or Classic FICO scores with the application, it may choose which one to use to determine the risk-based required asset amount portion of the PMIERs calculation.
The Fannie Mae guidance includes grids for both models. For the VantageScore grid for most buckets the required capital level is higher and corresponds to the same for a FICO loan with a credit score which is 20 points lower, George said in a flash note on Aug. 10.
"We think this transition to VantageScore 4.0 remains a work in progress. While there has been meaningful adoption by
In 2025, 64% of purchasers who used PMI were first-time home buyers, a report from US Mortgage Insurers released on Aug. 13 said. The average loan amount was $376,317, with a total value of over $311 billion.
Here are how the six private mortgage insurance underwriters performed during the second quarter:
MGIC writes most new business in almost four years
Based on the second quarter results, George increased his 2026 and 2027 earnings per share estimates for MGIC Investment to $3.28 and $3.46 from $3.11 and $3.39, respectively. He cited slightly better credit.
The price target was raised to $30 per share because of its ongoing strong performance. He did not change the market perform rating.
"We expect the company to continue to trade at a premium to peers given the industry's high level of capital return," George said.
In the quarter, MGIC's net income of $182.1 million was an increase
New insurance written grew to $17.8 billion, up from $14.4 billion three months ago and $16.4 billion one year prior.
This was the highest amount of business MGIC has done since the third quarter of 2022, CEO Tim Mattke said on the earnings call.
MGIC regained the top spot from Arch, which because of a non-GSE transaction, had the most NIW in the first quarter.
The delinquent loan inventory ended the quarter at 26,152, down from 27,006 on March 31; on June 30, 2025, the inventory had 24,444 loans.
"While we expect seasonality to lead to an increase in delinquencies in the second half of the year, the delinquency trends through the second quarter remain consistent with the credit normalization we have been experiencing for the past three years," Nathan Colson, executive vice president and chief financial officer, said on the call. "And the delinquency rate remains 43 basis points below the second quarter of 2019."
An ultimate claims rate for those notices received might be in the 3%-to-4% range, Colson said later on the call.
Radian's Inigo results below expectations
Continuing operations for Radian Group ended the second quarter with $118 million of net income. This was lower than the first quarter's $129 million and the second quarter of 2025, when it made $142 million.
After the quarter ended, the company sold its real estate services business and entered into a contract to sell the title insurance units
Plus, on Aug. 13, the previously announced CEO transition took place
On the earnings call, Thornberry noted the specialty insurance business was almost 50% of Radian Group's total revenue and 53% of total net premiums for the second quarter.
"While the underlying specialty insurance portfolio continues to perform well, it is important to acknowledge that market conditions have become more competitive and rates continue to soften," Thornberry said about Inigo. "The current rate environment is consistent with the cyclical dynamics we anticipate when underwriting the acquisition."
Radian Group's aim for Inigo is profitability, not a revenue growth target, he continued.
But KBW is "modestly decreasing" earnings estimates for Radian because of the second quarter miss on Inigo. George had modeled incurred losses of $55.2 million and Inigo reported a much larger number, $169.2 million. This was related to a discretionary reserve build due to the Iran conflict.
As a result, George dropped his EPS outlook to $4.82 from $5.14 for this year, and to $5.17 from $5.47 in 2027. His price target is $2 lower, to $44.
Weinbach was asked about what he came away with during his period as CEO-elect.
"We'll pull back in a softening market where we don't see the returns, but we're going to continue to lean into areas where we believe pricing remains adequate and where our underwriting expertise provides a competitive advantage," he said. "We still see opportunities to grow to new lines and have new partnerships in other areas to drive growth."
Second quarter NIW was $16.3 billion, with over 90% for purchase. This compared with the first quarter's $13.5 billion (79% purchase); one year ago, it did $14.3 billion, with 95% purchase business.
National MI reaches No. 3 in market share
NMI Holdings, the parent of National MI, is the smallest of the six companies as measured by insurance-in-force.
But in the second quarter, the company which two years ago had the least amount of new insurance written, rose to third with volume of $16.1 billion from $12.3 billion three months prior and $12.5 billion on a year-over-year basis.
Net income was $105.8 million, compared with $99.3 million in the first quarter and $96.2 million in the second quarter of 2025.
"With the shares up 25% since June 1 and with 6% upside to our price target, we are downgrading the shares to market perform on valuation," George said. However, KBW is maintaining its $47 price target.
He increased the EPS outlook to $5.22 from $5.07 for 2026 and $5.30 from $5.25 for 2027.
On the earnings call, Adam Pollitzer, president and CEO, addressed the MI industry's competitive dynamics for the period.
"I'd say broadly speaking, from a competitive standpoint, our view of what we observed in the market is that it looks like the industry is really at a point of balance in a very constructive way," Pollitzer said.
NMI was the third of the six to report, so he could not give a more comprehensive answer on the share shift.
Still, "I think this is all just sort of in the normal plus/minus, right? There's always going to be fluctuations up or down that happen at any point in time," Pollitzer said. It could be because volume may have moved from one originator to another where we happen to have greater wallet share."
Underwriting income flat Q/Q for Arch's MI unit
Arch Capital Group's mortgage segment reported its second quarter underwriting income was about $1 million lower than three months prior but down about 8% versus the prior year.
Yet management was still happy with the unit's performance, which besides the U.S. primary MI line, also includes international and reinsurance activities.
Our mortgage segment produced another very strong quarter with underwriting income of $220 million," Arch Capital CEO Nicolas Papadopoulo said during the earnings call. "Net premiums earned were flat from last quarter, with a reduction in our U.S. MI business mostly offset by higher levels of earned premium in Australia."on
The premium growth in Australia was related to a new client, Papadopoulo said later on the call. To which Francois Morin, chief financial officer added "it's a relatively large new client, which just started in Q1. So as we move throughout the rest of the year, we should see more and more of that business coming in."
Arch's MI segment had $221 million of underwriting income in the first quarter and $238 million for the second quarter of 2025.
It ended the quarter with $15.6 billion of NIW from its stateside business, compared with $14.8 billion in the first quarter; this included $2.2 billion of non-GSE coverage written during the prior period. For last year's second quarter, Arch had $12.3 billion of NIW.
Arch Capital, which besides mortgage, also breaks out insurance and reinsurance segments in its results, did $1 billion of net income available to common shareholders in the second quarter. This was similar to the first quarter and slightly below the $1.2 billion reported one year ago.
Enact reports 19% gain in NIW, beats profitability estimates
In the second quarter, Enact reported net income of $175 million, up from $168 million for each of the two comparable periods.
The earnings per share beat KBW's estimates by 10 cents and this led George to increase his 2026 full-year estimate to $4.78 from $4.67.
He also upped the stock price target to $49 from $44. "This takes it in line with our price for MGIC, which has a similar profile of solid earnings and meaningful capital return," George said in his Enact wrap up.
NIW of $15.2 billion also beat George's projections of $14.5 billion. In the first quarter, Enact did $12.8 billion, while a year ago, it produced $13.3 billion of NIW. The company is very happy with the NIW it wrote in the quarter and the returns it was able to price it at, said Rohit Gupta, president and CEO, on the call.
Gupta spoke about Enact's approach to the credit score modernization efforts.
"During the quarter, we began participating in the market's limited rollout of VantageScore 4, although its financial impact during the quarter was immaterial," he said. "We remain committed to supporting our customers and staying operationally aligned as initiatives are implemented and scaled in the market."
Later during the Q&A, Gupta added that VantageScore pricing of its MI product is accurate down to the loan level.
As the FICO 10T data comes out, Enact is getting ready to build the same capabilities "so we can support that rollout as and when it happens," he said.
Essent looks to leverage MI to gain title clients
Essent Guaranty's strong credit trends led George to increase EPS estimates to $7.52 this year and $7.56 for next. The price target was hiked to $78 per share from $74.
Its market share rose nearly 6% versus the first quarter, yet it remains with the lowest volume of NIW among the six underwriters.
Essent wrote $14.1 billion, compared with $11.1 billion in the first quarter and $12.5 billion one year ago.
Net income of $189.7 million was up from $171.8 million for the period ended March 31, but down from $195.3 million for the quarter ended June 30, 2025.
Besides MI, Essent also does title and reinsurance.
In particular, Mark Casale, chairman and CEO, said its title unit is a "capital-light opportunity" for Essent which supplements its earnings.
It is "onboarding new partners by leveraging the broad relationship within our MI franchise," he continued during the earnings call.
"High interest rates remain a modest headwind near term, and we do not expect title to have any meaningful impact on earnings," Casale said. "Longer term, our expectations remain the same."
As for the market share, because of the nature of the business being primarily GSE-driven, little credit-based competition exists among the private MIs, he said.
"So for someone like Essent, we're at the lower end of the market share game," Casale said. "But if you look at kind of lifetime premium share, we're probably closer to middle of the pack, if not a little bit above that."
Commenting on the difference between Classic FICO and VantageScore 4.0, Casale said the higher scores from the latter could bring a Federal Housing Administration mortgage borrower over to the conventional market.
"We have to be careful how we price it," Casale said. "But I think net-net, it's probably positive for the conventional market."
